Validation of ERICVA Risk Score as a Predictor of One Year Amputation-Free Survival of Patients with Critical Limb Ischemia.

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The ERICVA score was derived to predict amputation-free survival in patients with critical limb ischemia (CLI). It may be a useful tool to stratify patients in trials of novel interventions to treat CLI but, as yet, it has not been externally validated.A prospective database of CLI patients was developed during pre-screening of patients for a phase 1 stem cell therapy clinical trial. The primary outcome was amputation free survival (AFS) at 1 year. Both the full ERICVA scale (11 parameters) and simplified ERICVA scale (5 parameters) were validated. Data analysis was performed by calculation of the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve examining the predictive value of the scores. The Chi-square test was used to examine the association between risk group and one-year AFS and the cumulative survival of the three risk groups was compared using Kaplan Meier survival curves.A series of 179 CLI patients were included in the analysis. The Chi-square test of independence showed a significant association between the risk group (high, medium and low) and one-year AFS outcome (p= .0007). Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed significant difference in one-year AFS between the three risk groups (log-rank p

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Authors: Sara-Azhari Mohamed, Navian Lee Viknaswaran, Jonathan Doran, Clara Sanz-Nogués, Khalid Ahmed, Linda Howard, Muhammad Tubassam, Timothy O’Brien, Stewart Redmond Walsh