Validation of an Integrated Risk Tool, Including Polygenic Risk Score, for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Multiple Ethnicities and Ancestries.

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The American College of Cardiology / American Heart Association pooled cohort equations tool (ASCVD-PCE) is currently recommended to assess 10-year risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). ASCVD-PCE does not currently include genetic risk factors. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been shown to offer a powerful new approach to measuring genetic risk for common diseases, including ASCVD, and to enhance risk prediction when combined with ASCVD-PCE. Most work to date, including the assessment of tools, has focused on performance in individuals of European ancestries. Here we present evidence for the clinical validation of a new integrated risk tool (IRT), ASCVD-IRT, which combines ASCVD-PCE with PRS to predict 10-year risk of ASCVD across diverse ethnicity and ancestry groups. We demonstrate improved predictive performance of ASCVD-IRT over ASCVD-PCE, not only in individuals of self-reported White ethnicities (net reclassification improvement (NRI) (with 95% confidence interval) = 2.7% (1.1 – 4.2)) but also Black / African American / Black Caribbean / Black African (NRI = 2.5% (0.6 – 4.3)) and South Asian (Indian, Bangladeshi or Pakistani) ethnicities (NRI = 8.7% (3.1 – 14.4)). NRI confidence intervals were wider and included zero for ethnicities with smaller sample sizes, including Hispanic (NRI = 7.5% (-1.4 – 16.5)), but PRS effect sizes in these ethnicities were significant and of comparable size to those seen in individuals of White ethnicities. Comparable results were obtained when individuals were analysed by genetically inferred ancestry. Together, these results validate the performance of ASCVD-IRT in multiple ethnicities and ancestries, and favour their generalisation to all ethnicities and ancestries.

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Authors: Michael E Weale, Fernando Riveros-Mckay, Saskia Selzam, Priyanka Seth, Rachel Moore, William A Tarran, Eva Gradovich, Carla Giner-Delgado, Duncan Palmer, Daniel Wells, Ayden Saffari, R Michael Sivley, Alexander S Lachapelle, Hannah Wand, Shoa L Clarke, Joshua W Knowles, Jack W O’Sullivan, Euan A Ashley, Gil McVean, Vincent Plagnol, Peter Donnelly